Coffee Bulls Are Now Stirring

The Commodity Trader’s view

In late 2008 the downtrend in Coffee had looked as though it was in the mature stage, suggested by the overall chart structure for the previous 6 months. There are now bullish signals that cannot be ignored.

• WEEKLY CHART – CONTINUATION: The major fall from last Feb’s peak has taken the form of two distinct downlegs. Good support has come from the 76.4% level of the 2005-08 upmove, this just above the 100.00 2007 lows. Technically, a rebound from here would not be a surprise.
• DAILY CHART – MAR-09: After support was found near two Fibo projections that we had, around 103.00, two things have happened now to provide an initial bull trigger, 1) a break above the small bear channel, and 2) a break of the 114.00 15-Dec high This opens up our first target towards the 125.43 38.2% level and 125.85 14-Oct high. Any buyers will likely have initial stops below the 106.05 05-Jan low. A break below this would negate the current bullish signs. [For the complete and illustrated version of this and future Updates be sure to sign up at www.sevendaysahead.com]