Sugar Strength May Be Sapping

The Commodity Trader’s view - Sugar is one of the Softs that has been performing very well over the last few weeks. However, certain bull targets have been reached/exceeded and we are looking closer now for a pullback phase.

• MONTHLY CHART – CONTINUATION: After a prolonged triangular consolidation on the continuation chart the bull break worked well (unlike a recent one in Cocoa). Our 76.4% target was reached/ exceeded, and there is now scope for a pullback phase.
• DAILY CHART – Oct-09:: The recent upleg off 15.61 17-Jun low almost reached our Fibo projection at 18.20. This projection is related to the fact that the current 38.2% pullback virtually coincides with this low. There is a chance that this represents a final blow-off move ahead of a corrective phase – the market may need some more time however before this gets properly underway. Note also a possible negative RSI divergence. The 16.91 01-Jun high has been s/term supportive – breaks of this and the 16.52 23.6% pullback level would be negative signs. Just the chance nearby 16.17 Jul-08 high will be temporarily supportive but of more interest would be the lower 15.61/55 38.2% area. It is uncertain how bearish one should get here but this at least warns off eager buyers for now. Sell strategies will accordingly not be greedy initially.

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