Brent Crude Oil – Initial Bear Signal in Place

The Commodity Specialist view - During the summer months Brent Crude Oil bulls got a second wind, but have recently struggled near to resistance on the long term chart. An initial bear signal was given last week, and we now look for the confirming move.

• WEEKLY CHART - CONTINUATION: The 38.2% recovery level has proved a tough hurdle to pass, and remains first key resistance on this long term chart. The recovery from the late Dec-08 low shows signs of maturity now, so a decent pullback at this stage would not be a surprise.
• DAILY CHART – NOV-09: The break/close below both the main rising support line and 66.66 04-Sep low was a clear bear signal. We had thought that the dual Fibo support could prompt a s/term bounce, hence we did not want to chase the market. In the Commodity Specialist Guide we were sellers on a bounce, at 68.75, just ahead of the old rising support/return line, with initial stops just above the 72.20 17-Sep high. A better break of recent support, and the channel base projection just below, would be useful bear confirmation now, with 61.00 targeted for partial profits. A later target centers on the 61.8% level. The current bear signal would be negated on a recovery back through that 72.20 high.

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