Silver Bears Look Well-Placed

The Commodity Specialist view - The impressive 2009 recovery in Silver began to show signs of maturing in the latter part of the year, with price action in Dec giving a hint of bear fatigue. We remain content with the bearish stance that we hold in the Commodity Specialist Guide and now expect to see further confirmation of this.

• WEEKLY CHART – CONTINUATION: The 76.4% recovery level wasn’t very effective as resistance – it is arguable whether or not it has had a residual resistive influence. What is clear, though, is the resistance found from the Jul-08 high. First interesting support on this chart is implied around 16.00 (see also Daily chart below).
• DAILY CHART – MAR-10: An initial negative sign came from the Dec break below the small bull channel base projection, implying loss of momentum. The recent bounce off clear 38.2% support has met equally clear resistance from the 76.4% s/term recovery level – we had assumed that such strength would not be long-lasting. A break below the 38.2% area is likely, the next target being the 16.00 area, 50% pullback and Jun-09 high. However, we also keep in mind a lower Fibo projection at 15.55. We are not yet looking for a major reversal in bull trend, though.

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