EUR/CHF Downmove Stalls, Again

The FX Trader’s view - Twice before, this year, the downmove in the EUR/CHF cross has shown signs of trying to find a decent support level, but with bears then driving values lower. For a third time, now, the chart has reached a point where it is worth looking closer for signs of bear fatigue.

• WEEKLY CHART: The latest slip here reached an earlier Fibo projection of ours around 1.4040. The Oct-08 1.4296 low area offers first resistance on this chart.
• DAILY CHART: Note how the latest breakdown point coincides with the current 23.6% bounce level of the downmove from Mar-09 high, around 1.4340 at present. It lays not much above the Oct-08 low. A recovery/close above this key resistance would suggest that a better recovery phase was underway, with subsequent dips then more likely to be corrective only. Next resistance of note would be prior 1.4559/76 lows, which conveniently coincide with the 38.2% level (not shown). Meanwhile the trend must be seen as down still.

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