USD/CHF Bears Resting – Do Bulls Lie in Ambush?

The FX Specialist view - The downtrend in USD/CHF has slowed over the last few months, support emerging on the longer term chart. Our stance in the Commodity Specialist Guide has remained bearish, but a clear break of a key resistance area would change this.

• WEEKLY CHART Following erosion of the long term bear channel base support has emerged from the equality target at 0.9345 (Nov-08/Nov-09 downmove measured off the 1.1730 Jun-10 high). Note resistance on this chart offered by the old support/return line.
• DAILY CHART: The initial bounce off the 0.9298 31-Dec low found was repelled by the rising old support/return line. This low has stayed intact, keeping the next Fibo projection at 0.9040 out of reach for now. At this stage a recovery needs to overcome key resistance that centres on the 0.9914 Nov-09 low and includes that old return line and a bear channel top. A clear break/close above this resistance would provide us with a clear bull signal, and justify calculating higher retracement levels. We await developments.

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