US Dollar Index Stuck On 76.4% Support

Earlier this year a half-hearted recovery attempt came to naught. The US Dollar Index is currently resting on a 76.4% retracement support –we wait to see if this provides a launch pad for a fresh recovery attempt.

• WEEKLY CHART Earlier support came from the bear channel base projection, following the brief breach of the 74.170 Nov-09 low.
• DAILY CHART See how the Jul pullback has stuck at 76.4% support, fortified by the 73.506 07-Jun low. A clear positive reaction is needed to reduce bear risk. In this respect a better break of the 38.2% recovery area is needed for the first bull signal, when higher targets can be considered. There comes a point when reluctance to drop below the 76.4% level becomes reluctance to recover –we are probably not far off that turning point.

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Sugar Recovery Still Unable to Overcome Resistance

After a recent s/term setback in Sugar an ensuing recovery has found resistance at previous levels. We wait to see if a more lasting pullback phase will get underway should prices keep easing.

• WEEKLY CHART –CONTINUATION The recovery from support near to the old 2006 high looks to be faltering on its approach to the 32.40 76.4% retracement level.
• SUGAR 11 DAILY CHART –Oct-11: Unable to hold below the 27.57 Feb high and 38.2% retracement the market has bounced to retest prior resistance around our earlier Fibo projection. Also keep in mind resistance on the weekly chart –further gains could be a struggle. At this stage a slip below the 26.38 08-Aug low would suggest a more prolonged setback was in process.

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