The Commodity Specialist view - After deep losses in the CRB Index in 2008, 2009 was marked by a recovery attempt – and to date it has fallen short of the 38.2% retracement. This has been accompanied by certain bear signs that herald a medium term pullback phase now.
- MONTHLY CHART: Following a brief push through the 284.61 Jan-07 low the market has struggled. In fact the sell-off in Jan produced a negative Key Reversal Month, its impact perhaps aided by the fact that the trading month was made up of four complete weeks.
- WEEKLY CHART: On the Weekly chart note how the recovery from 2009 low failed ahead of the 38.2% retracement level. There was a well-defined uptrend line which has been clearly broken, implying a deeper pullback phase has got underway.
- DAILY CHART – MAR-10: After the earlier drop below the 280.00 area the bear argument strengthened following the break of the s/term bull channel base projection, and then 271.66 23.6% pullback (of whole 2009 recovery). This was our cue to adopt a bear stance in the Commodity Specialist Guide, supported by that key reversal month, above. Any bounce should prove short-lived, ahead of a further downleg, possible resistance around 280.00. Look out for s/term support centring on 260 (larger channel base projection just above, 38.2% just below). But the Index should push lower in due course.
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