Fresh Support in EUR/CHF Now Visible

The FX Specialist view - So far in 2010 the bears in EUR/CHF have been the clear dominant force. Any support found has proved fleeting. Recently a temporary halt in downtrend was seen, so it is appropriate to take stock of the technical position.

• WEEKLY CHART: The second of two bear channel base projections was recently tested – and so far it has provided good support. But there is little in the current chart structure that suggests bear fatigue...
• DAILY CHART: With a temporary low established we have tentatively drawn in a couple of s/term retracement levels: - note how 23.6% has provided s/term resistance, the market currently trying to break higher. Success would be a small positive sign. Besides the intervening 1.3731 09-Jun low, note higher resistance around the 1.4000 area – former May lows and 61.8%. In fact, with the current 1.3070 low, this looks most key, as there are other, longer term, Fibo retracements (not shown) that fall close to this area too. A recovery through this latter would look bullish. One point of technical interest – note that the 1.3070 low was an approximate 2.618 swing target off prior 1.3997/1.4587 May rally.

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